July Blues

I love July. Warm weather, light mornings and evenings, even my gardening efforts seeming to succeed. So why the July Blues?

In my job, you have to keep an eye on the wider world. Whether it’s the Trump and Kim show, Italian Politics (which makes ours look relatively straightforward), or the latest in tariffs and trade wars, I and my team have to be up to speed.

I’ve just read two unconnected reports. The first tells me ESG investors are flocking back to the banking sector. I am increasingly excited about the possibilities for ESG investing. E stands for environment, S for social, and G for good corporate governance.

One challenge though is that one fund managers ESG is not the same as another’s. In my opinion, the greed of the banks was the creator of our last financial crisis ten years ago.

Read ex-Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King’s book THE END OF ALCHEMY. Improvements made since have been forced on the banks by regulators. They have been continuously fined and censored. I would struggle to see any major bank in an investment fund doing good in the world.

The second report, asks five leading fund managers when the next recession is predicted to be!!! What sort of question is that? Doesn’t every intelligent person know that YOU GET WHAT YOU THINK? In other words by thinking about a problem you can create the conditions for it to happen. The bible says somewhere “As a man thinketh” or something like that.

For the detail people amongst you, Psigma predicted it’s all down to the yield curve, no date was given. 7IM said it’s all down to the Kritzman Standardized Absorption Ratio, whatever the heck that is. No recession is looming. Senecca rely on the Output Gap, they think 2020 for a recession. Miton look at money supply figures. They predict a US slowdown but no recession. Finally, Brooks MacDonald analyse spare capacity in an economy but cleverly make no prediction.

What do they say about economists? I can’t recall the exact phrase but you can guarantee they are all wrong.

It’s probably time to go into the garden again.

If you wish to discuss –

Contact Mark O’Neill at Jones Harris Chartered Financial Planning on: 01253 874255 or email: mark.oneill@jones-harriscfp.co.uk

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